What’s wrong with the weather? Predictwind! – October update

We felt it was important to update our previous post with some more concerning findings. So far, there have been no fixes released for the issues raised. Based on the many comments we received via social media, our website, and direct messages, it’s clear that many of you are experiencing the same — or very similar — problems, and having the same conversations with the team at PredictWind.

And now, there seems to be even more changes showing up in the app — again, with no announcement or heads-up. That’s what made me ask the obvious question: What’s going on here?

Why has SPIRE dissapeared, and where’s the official product information about the introduction of ICON, AIFS, and PWAI?

As many of you already know, the SPIRE weather model is unique within PredictWind in that it attempts to fill the gaps left by more traditional forecasting models. Unlike models that rely primarily on data from ground-based weather stations, SPIRE uses satellite data to inform its forecasts.

For anyone sailing in remote ocean regions, high latitudes, or areas like the Southern Ocean — where ground stations are few and far between — this satellite-driven approach offers clear advantages. In these environments, conventional models often struggle due to a lack of input data, making SPIRE potentially more reliable for open ocean forecasting.

However, with the recent appearance of new models like ICON, AIFS, and PWAI — seemingly introduced without announcement or supporting documentation — it raises important questions. What do these new models offer? How do they compare to SPIRE or other existing options? And more critically: why has there been no clear communication from PredictWind about these significant changes?

This is a previous quote from Nick Olson Marketing & Business Development Manager, PredictWind

“The Spire Weather Forecast excels for open ocean weather forecast accuracy. The level of development and speed of innovation that Spire is putting into its models continues to impress us.”

And from the Predictwind website. “Spire’s satellite constellation uses radio frequency sensors to create a 3D profile of atmospheric temperature, pressure, and humidity over 10,000 times per day. Spire outputs a global resolution of 12km with an advantage in forecast accuracy for remote locations”

And yet, here is the email I received today.

It’s incredibly disappointing to see that Spire is being phased out. While the addition of ICON is, on the surface, a positive move, it’s still a traditional weather model — one that’s already widely available for free through other tools and platforms.

As for the claim that the new AI-generated models are “better” than Spire? I’ll leave that for you to judge. Personally, I remain unconvinced, especially given the lack of transparency around how these models are being developed, tested, or validated for offshore and high-latitude sailing.

Right now, the entire PredictWind app ecosystem feels like a mess. You can still access Spire data in the Routing and Offshore App GRIB downloads, but it’s completely absent from the MAP view in the mobile and web apps. Meanwhile, ICON and the new AI models (AIFS, PWAI) aren’t available as routing options.

PredictWind may claim all this is part of a “major upgrade,” but from where I stand, it feels more like a cost-cutting exercise. It follows a pattern we’ve already seen — the quiet removal of one of the ocean current models, the discontinuation of the PWG and PWE wave models, and now, the phasing out of Spire — all dressed up in marketing spin rather than honest, technical explanation.

On our recent challenging crossing from Iceland to the UK, we had PredictWind running side by side with LuckGrib. It was clear that the LuckGrib routing, which lets you compare multiple models and ensembles properly, gave us far greater confidence. It kept us out of the worst weather, and as we monitored conditions during the passage, we could see that the PredictWind routing would have taken us into rougher, less comfortable sea states.